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Founder Factor · Issue #2May 26, 2026

Zscaler reports tonight, Hyperscalers hit $1T

Why we think ZS is mispriced into the print, the $1T capex chart anchoring our thesis, Trump on a possible Iran deal, and the week ahead.

SecurityAI CapexMacroEarnings

Jay Chaudhry at Zscaler

Our thesis on Zscaler is straightforward: Chaudhry has built the world's largest cloud security platform, and AI is now its biggest tailwind.

The Zero Trust Exchange sits between every interaction inside an enterprise network and grants or blocks access at machine speed. No competitor operates at this scale or with this gated architecture. ZS processes over 600 billion transactions a day and protects more than 45% of Fortune 500 workflows, riding a moat of switching costs, scale, and know-how that no startup could replicate without decades of investment.

AI is now replacing human users as the weak link in enterprise cybersecurity. Anthropic's Claude Mythos recently demonstrated that a powerful AI model can scan code, find vulnerabilities, and generate working exploits faster than any human team. Every enterprise rushing to adopt AI is placing its most sensitive data in the cloud, creating an urgent need for Zscaler's platform. Zero Trust works like an invisibility cloak: attackers cannot scan what they cannot see.

ZS reports tonight after the close. We expect a strong beat-and-raise driven by momentum in $1M+ deals, Z Flex bookings, and Zero Trust Everywhere customers (550 today vs. 130 a year ago). With roughly 4,000 of the 20,000 largest global enterprises onboard, penetration sits near 20%, leaving a long runway. ZS sold off with the broader software industry. In our view, it remains significantly undervalued relative to its earnings power.

Rating

Buy

Price Target

$320 (+78% upside)

Current Price

$180

Q1 '26 Sales Beat

+2%

Q1 '26 EPS Beat

+12%

Q1 '26 Reaction

−12%

BeforeAfter
Sales$3.282–$3.301B$3.309–$3.322B
Adjusted EPS$3.78–$3.82$3.99–$4.02
Operating Income$732–$740M$742–$748M

Risks We're Watching

Competition from Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, though ZS's architecture gives it an edge. A delay or reduction in enterprise IT budgets. The shift toward token- and agent-based pricing continues to evolve and may be disruptive near term before the market settles on a standard.

3.1×

Founder-led S&P 500 companies outperformed their non-founder peers over the 25 years through 2014, and by 2.1× over the most recent decade. Most ETFs barely own them. FFF owns the 100 founder-led names indices underweight or miss.

Bain & Company chart: Founder-led companies outperform 1990 to 2014

Source: Bain & Company analysis of companies in the 2014 S&P 500; indexed total shareholder return from 1990 to 2014.

$1 Trillion in AI Capex by 2030

Hyperscaler AI infrastructure spend is on a trajectory toward $1 trillion in cumulative capex by 2030.

Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle have each meaningfully ramped their AI-related capex plans over the past four quarters. That spending lands at the doorstep of the founder-led companies that supply the silicon, the systems, the data layer, and the power.

FFF's exposure is intentionally built around this buildout. On the compute side: NVDA (Jensen Huang) for silicon and the CUDA platform, plus DELL (Michael Dell) and ORCL (Larry Ellison) for the AI server and private-cloud layer. On the data side: SNOW (Sridhar Ramaswamy) and PLTR (Alex Karp) for where enterprise AI actually runs. On the power side: WULF, IREN, and CIFR for the energy that no hyperscaler can build fast enough on its own. The buildout is concentrated, founder-led, and accelerating.

Hyperscaler capex breaks $1 trillion a year by 2030. Stacked bar chart showing AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, and ORCL combined capex from $149B in 2023 rising to $1,049B in 2030E.

Source: SEC filings (10-K), Bloomberg consensus estimates as of 5/11/26, internal forecasts for 2029–2030. Figures in USD billions.

Founders in Their Own Words

Jay Chaudhry · Zscaler

Q2 FY2026 Earnings

Jay Chaudhry, Founder & CEO of Zscaler, Q2 FY2026 Earnings

Our take. On the Q2 call management was "feeling really good going into H2 FY26," and the setup supports it. We expect a beat-and-raise quarter driven by Zero Trust, Flex, Data Security, and AI Security, with particular attention on AI agent commentary that the Street isn't yet modeling. As results validate the thesis, we expect the narrative to shift from AI displacement fears to how large of an AI beneficiary ZS will become. After the close today could be the turning point.

Bipul Sinha · Rubrik

Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call

Bipul Sinha, Founder & CEO of Rubrik, Q4 FY2026 Earnings Call

Our take. While Zscaler secures the network (the doors, hallways, and traffic flowing in and out of the building, keeping bad actors out), Rubrik grants or denies each private AI agent access to the vault where the enterprise's most critical data lives and never leaves. RBRK's Annapurna platform allows each AI agent to read specific books in the vault but never check them out of the library. The data never moves, never creates a shadow copy, and never leaves its governed environment, making compliance with GDPR, HIPAA, and SOX dramatically cleaner. Once an enterprise builds its AI agent stack on Annapurna as the retrieval layer, the switching cost becomes a full re-architecture, not a simple contract negotiation. In a world where proprietary data is the competitive advantage, RBRK protects its customers' moats.

RIA Q&A on FFF's Role in a Portfolio

What role does FFF play in a portfolio?

FFF provides 100% Founder-Led exposure to 100 large US-listed public companies where the original Founder serves as a chief officer, often CEO or CTO. FFF serves as a complement with notable overlap with both SPY (15%) and QQQ (17%), as of 4/30/26, subject to change. The exposure is predominantly US large-cap growth equities, innovation themed, with a software 32% (not semiconductors 11%) tilt — the inverse tilt of QQQ.

U.S. Economic Releases · Week of May 26–29

What Printed

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board's May reading came in nearly flat at 93.1, a tick above the 92 expected. The Present Situation component slipped to 121.2, suggesting consumers feel a little shakier than a month ago.

Case-Shiller

Across 20 S&P Case-Shiller cities, home prices rose +0.83% year-over-year in March, indicating a balanced market.

What We're Watching

Thu, May 28 — Core PCE

Fed's preferred inflation gauge: expected +3.3% YoY for April, lingering above the 2% long-term target.

Thu, May 28 — Durable Goods Orders

Expected +3.9% YoY, led by car purchases.

Thu, May 28 — Initial Jobless Claims

Expected ~212k, consistent with a resilient labor market.

Our take. U.S. consumers, whose spending makes up roughly two-thirds of GDP, are feeling the pressure of inflation, higher prices at the pump, fewer jobs, and general uncertainty. We view these forces as transitory. As the war ends, the AI buildout resolves supply shortages, and AI begins creating more jobs than it displaces, we expect confidence to rebound and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's focus to shift to cutting rates to prevent deflation.

4 FFF Holdings Reporting This Week

ZscalerZS

Jay Chaudhry, Founder & CEO

After the close · Tonight, Tue May 26

The premier cloud-native security platform that sits between employees, devices, applications, and AI agents, approving or denying every interaction. We're watching for strong billing and RPO growth, commentary about enterprise demand including solid new $1 million+ deals, growth in Z Flex bookings and average contract duration, discussion of customer demand for AI agent security, and Zero Trust Everywhere customer growth above 550.

Dell TechnologiesDELL

Michael Dell, Founder & CEO

Before the open · Wed, May 27

The leading AI infrastructure buildout play, shipping GPU servers to hyperscalers, sovereign AI projects, and enterprises at massive scale. We're watching whether AI server revenue clears the $13B Q1 guidance, ISG margins as proof this revenue is profitable not just large, and whether full-year revenue guidance gets raised above the current $138 to $142B range.

SnowflakeSNOW

Sridhar Ramaswamy, Founder & CEO

After the close · Wed, May 27

The cloud data platform where enterprises consolidate, store, and query their most valuable data, increasingly the foundation layer that enterprise AI runs on. We're watching product revenue growth for AI workload acceleration, net revenue retention as a signal of platform stickiness, and RPO as the forward demand indicator after last quarter's $9.77B, +42% year-on-year.

SalesforceCRM

Marc Benioff, Founder & CEO

After the close · Thu, May 28

The dominant CRM and enterprise cloud platform, repositioned with Agentforce as the operating system for the agentic enterprise. We're watching for Agentforce ARR acceleration beyond $800M and operating margin expansion as proof AI is improving unit economics, not just the narrative.

Trump Signals a Possible Iran Peace Deal

An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries... Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened… I don't make bad deals!

President Trump, Truth Social, May 23, 2026

Our take. Roughly 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. A credible deal that restored flows would send gasoline prices lower, helping lower-income US consumers the most, easing inflation expectations, and giving the Fed more room to cut rates — a positive for US growth stocks and other risk assets. While we are optimistic, we have been close to a deal several times without an end to the war. We believe Trump needs to make a deal this summer or global oil reserves will drift too low, raising gasoline prices significantly and increasing the odds of a US recession.

Founder Factor · Weekly Newsletter

Want the company-level read?

Founder Factor, our weekly newsletter, takes this same macro picture and asks the next question: which Founder-Led companies are positioned for it? Issue #02 covers Jay Chaudhry's setup at Zscaler, two founder quote cards on the AI security tailwind, and previews of ZS, DELL, SNOW, and CRM earnings.

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